Navigating the Divide: Think Tank Perspectives on Technology, Trade, and Geopolitics

Executive Summary

A survey conducted among 32 think tanks across 25 countries within the Global Trade and Innovation Policy Alliance (GTIPA) indicates a prevailing optimism regarding the pace and impact of technological change. However, this technological enthusiasm is significantly tempered by a marked lack of confidence in the current global policy and trade environment. Respondents generally agree that emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence and biotechnology, hold substantial future promise. Conversely, there is widespread skepticism concerning recent shifts in the global trading system and insufficient policy attention to cybersecurity risks. The report suggests that while technological foundations remain robust, the external geopolitical and regulatory landscape introduces significant uncertainty, requiring a strategic focus on skills development and trade openness to foster innovation capacity.

Introduction

Technological advancement is accelerating concurrently with increasingly contested political landscapes. This intersection poses a critical question for policymakers and innovation experts: is the outlook for the next decade fundamentally optimistic, or are geopolitical fragmentation, regulatory hurdles, and technological uncertainties dominating the strategic calculus? Surveying think tanks is valuable because their perspectives directly inform policy priorities for governments, industry, and the broader societal landscape. These views can illuminate which technological and economic issues are gaining prominence and where policy support is most needed. Comparing these perspectives across different national contexts further reveals where policy priorities align or diverge, offering early indicators of future avenues for international cooperation.

In this context, the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF) surveyed 32 think tanks in 25 countries belonging to the GTIPA. The survey assessed key propositions related to the impact of emerging technologies, the state of the global trade system, the dynamics of U.S.-China competition, and various other technological frontiers, including quantum computing and fusion energy. The findings reveal a policy community that remains highly optimistic about technological progress but considerably less confident in the surrounding institutional and geopolitical framework.

Methodology

The survey involved 32 think tanks from 25 countries that share principles of pro-innovation policies, trade openness, and market-based solutions. To analyze differences, respondents were grouped into two categories: Western Allies (including nations such as the United States, Japan, and Canada) and non-aligned and other countries. This grouping allowed researchers to test whether geopolitical context systematically influenced views on technological change and trade. Respondents provided scores on various statements and ranked policy approaches for strengthening national innovation capacity, which included options ranging from industrial policies to skills development.

Results

The survey results paint a picture of a policy community that is fundamentally optimistic about technological progress but harbors considerable reservations about the institutional and geopolitical conditions that support it. Respondents expressed strong belief in the transformative potential of areas like biotechnology and quantum computing. However, this technological confidence is juxtaposed with significant concerns regarding the global trading system and the perceived underestimation of cyber risks by policymakers. Furthermore, while views on cybersecurity and green technology adoption showed high levels of agreement across groups, nuanced differences emerged concerning the drivers of technological change and the consequences of U.S.-China strategic competition.

A notable divergence appeared between Western-allied and non-Western-allied respondents concerning frontier technologies. Respondents from non-Western-allied countries exhibited greater optimism regarding the convergence of artificial intelligence and biotechnology, the continuation of Moore’s Law, and the commercial viability of fusion energy. These variances are not necessarily forecasts but rather reflections of how distinct economic, technological, and strategic environments perceive the opportunities and risks inherent in the coming decade.

When assessing policy priorities for enhancing national innovation capacity, skills development and workforce readiness, alongside trade openness and international collaboration, emerged as the highest ranked priorities. This suggests that policy focus should balance targeted domestic intervention with the necessity of maintaining open trade and fostering international partnership.

Global Perspective

The implications of these findings extend across several interconnected domains. For the global economy, the tension between technological potential and trade uncertainty suggests a future where domestic capabilities will be crucial, potentially leading to more regionalized innovation hubs alongside efforts to maintain global interconnectedness. For technology innovation, the consensus points toward sustained growth in deep tech fields, driven by cross-sector collaboration, while the divergent views on AI and biotechnology highlight potential future fault lines based on differing regulatory and geopolitical priorities. Business development will increasingly depend on navigating complex supply chains that must simultaneously address technological leaps and evolving trade regimes. Infrastructure planning will need to integrate both digital readiness and climate resilience to support the necessary energy transitions. Education systems face the challenge of rapidly upskilling global workforces to meet the demands of an increasingly automated and AI-driven economy.

Key Insights

Underlying Drivers and Challenges: The primary driver of optimism is the tangible progress in scientific and engineering capabilities, particularly in areas poised for significant commercial application. The key challenge, however, lies in the institutional environment. The skepticism surrounding the global trade system indicates that current mechanisms may not adequately support the scale and speed of technological diffusion required by emerging innovations. Furthermore, the perceived under-prioritization of cybersecurity suggests a systemic gap in policymaking that could introduce significant risks to the digital economy and critical infrastructure.

Industry Transformation: The survey highlights the convergence of AI and biotechnology as a major transformative innovation expected in the next decade. This intersection will redefine sectors from healthcare to materials science. The continued relevance of Moore’s Law, though debated in its pace, underscores the persistent importance of semiconductor technology and advanced materials as foundational elements for all future technological progress.

Policy Considerations: The results underscore the need for policymakers to decouple geopolitical competition from the fundamental drivers of innovation. The report strongly suggests that focusing on building robust domestic capabilities—through targeted industrial policies, investment attraction, and aggressive skills development—is a more reliable path to technological advancement than solely focusing on strategic alignment with specific geopolitical blocs. Trade openness and international collaboration are identified as crucial enablers for realizing these domestic gains.

Future Outlook

Over the next five to ten years, several trends are likely to shape the global landscape. Artificial Intelligence is expected to move from specialized tools to deeply integrated components across all industries, demanding corresponding advancements in digital infrastructure and governance. Science will continue to yield high-impact discoveries, particularly in life sciences, accelerating the pace of human health development. The Digital Economy will mature, with the focus shifting from mere connectivity to the secure, intelligent deployment of data-driven systems, placing cybersecurity at the forefront of investment. Infrastructure will need to evolve rapidly, incorporating sustainable and resilient design principles to manage climate adaptation challenges and support the circular economy. Global Trade will likely remain characterized by regionalization and strategic decoupling in certain high-tech sectors, creating complex, multi-speed trading environments. Education will need to pivot towards lifelong learning models centered on digital literacy and cross-disciplinary problem-solving to prepare the workforce for continuous technological adaptation.

Global Collaboration will become increasingly vital, not just for trade agreements but for establishing shared norms and governance frameworks for emerging technologies. The long-term development trajectory will depend on the capacity of international institutions to facilitate knowledge transfer and manage the inherent risks associated with rapid, uneven technological diffusion. The focus will shift toward establishing resilient innovation ecosystems that can withstand geopolitical turbulence by prioritizing foundational skills and ethical technological deployment.

Conclusion

Technological optimism in the policy community remains strong, grounded in the tangible potential of scientific and engineering progress. However, the anxiety surrounding the institutional and geopolitical environment serves as a necessary counterbalance. The core lesson for stakeholders across business, science, and governance is the imperative to build robust domestic foundations—focusing on human capital, investing in critical technologies, and maintaining open policy frameworks—while strategically engaging with the global landscape. Navigating the future successfully requires acknowledging both the immense promise of emerging technologies and the complexities of the interconnected world they inhabit.

Key Takeaways

* Technological optimism persists, but confidence in the policy environment is diminished due to geopolitical friction and trade system concerns.
* Emerging technologies like AI and biotechnology are expected to drive significant transformation, while cybersecurity and green-tech adoption require more focused policy attention.
* Geopolitical competition should be distinguished from the underlying drivers of innovation; skills and trade openness are identified as more critical policy levers.
* Policymakers must prioritize building domestic innovation capacity while maintaining engagement in international collaboration to manage technological diffusion risks.

SEO Keywords

Global Trends, Innovation, Artificial Intelligence, Technology, Science, Business, Digital Economy, Infrastructure, Climate Change, Renewable Energy, Global Economy, Education, Healthcare, International Trade, Future of Work, Research, Global Development, Knowledge Economy, Sustainability, Future Technologies, Global Trends, Innovation Ecosystems, Cross-disciplinary Innovation.

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Sources

ITIF Report: Balancing Optimism With Anxiety: How Think Tanks View Technology, Trade, and Geopolitics

[Global Trade and Innovation Policy Alliance (GTIPA) Survey Data (2026)]